Palos Verdes Real Estate Update

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NEW YORK (AP) — The number of people who signed contracts to buy homes rose in November, the fourth increase since hitting a low in June. Even with the gains, this year is shaping up to be the worst for home sales in 13 years.

The National Association of Realtors says its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes increased 3.5 percent last month from a downwardly revised reading in October. Contract signings were up in the West and Northeast, but down in the South and Midwest.

Signings are 22.1 percent above June’s index reading, which was the lowest level since the private group began tracking the data in 2001. But signings are 5 percent lower than November 2009 when buyers were scrambling to close purchases to qualify for the first federal tax credit.

Completed home sales — which the Realtors group measures in a separate report — are expected to total about 4.8 million units this year. That’s much lower than the 6 million units that analysts consider a healthy pace. The last time sales were lower was 1997 when sales totaled 4.4 million units.

A third of the pending sales likely will be foreclosures or short sales, where a homeowner sells a house for less than what is owed on it, the NAR spokesman Walter Molony said. That tracks with the average for the year. These distressed sales go for discounts of up to 50 percent in some of the hardest-hit areas and will continue to weigh down home prices.

Many economists expect home prices to drop another 5 percent to 10 percent in the next six months before stabilizing. Prices fell in 20 of America’s largest cities in October, according to the Standard& Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday.

There are several challenges facing the housing market aside from foreclosures. Potential buyers are worried about their jobs or are unable to qualify for a mortgage because lenders have tightened standards. And now mortgage rates are on the rise, gaining about two-thirds of a percentage point in the last month.

This week, the average rate on 30-year home loans rose to 4.86 percent from 4.81 percent, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s the highest level in seven months. It hit its lowest level in 40 years in November at 4.17 percent. The rate on the 15-year mortgage, a popular refinance option, also is rising.

The report on contract signings from the Realtors showed that signings jumped 18.2 percent in the West and edged up 1.8 percent in the Northeast. The Midwest region saw a 4.2 percent drop in signings in October and the South posted a 1.8-percent dip.

Give us a call at 310 684-3156 with any real estate questions or concerns or visit our Palos Verdes Real Estate website.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

         

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Palos Verdes Real Estate Update

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Best Palos Verdes Real Estate  Best Palos Verdes Real Estate Best Palos Verdes Real Estate

NEW YORK (AP) — The number of people who signed contracts to buy homes rose in November, the fourth increase since hitting a low in June. Even with the gains, this year is shaping up to be the worst for home sales in 13 years.

The National Association of Realtors says its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes increased 3.5 percent last month from a downwardly revised reading in October. Contract signings were up in the West and Northeast, but down in the South and Midwest.

Signings are 22.1 percent above June’s index reading, which was the lowest level since the private group began tracking the data in 2001. But signings are 5 percent lower than November 2009 when buyers were scrambling to close purchases to qualify for the first federal tax credit.

Completed home sales — which the Realtors group measures in a separate report — are expected to total about 4.8 million units this year. That’s much lower than the 6 million units that analysts consider a healthy pace. The last time sales were lower was 1997 when sales totaled 4.4 million units.

A third of the pending sales likely will be foreclosures or short sales, where a homeowner sells a house for less than what is owed on it, the NAR spokesman Walter Molony said. That tracks with the average for the year. These distressed sales go for discounts of up to 50 percent in some of the hardest-hit areas and will continue to weigh down home prices.

Many economists expect home prices to drop another 5 percent to 10 percent in the next six months before stabilizing. Prices fell in 20 of America’s largest cities in October, according to the Standard& Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday.

There are several challenges facing the housing market aside from foreclosures. Potential buyers are worried about their jobs or are unable to qualify for a mortgage because lenders have tightened standards. And now mortgage rates are on the rise, gaining about two-thirds of a percentage point in the last month.

This week, the average rate on 30-year home loans rose to 4.86 percent from 4.81 percent, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s the highest level in seven months. It hit its lowest level in 40 years in November at 4.17 percent. The rate on the 15-year mortgage, a popular refinance option, also is rising.

The report on contract signings from the Realtors showed that signings jumped 18.2 percent in the West and edged up 1.8 percent in the Northeast. The Midwest region saw a 4.2 percent drop in signings in October and the South posted a 1.8-percent dip.

Give us a call at 310 684-3156 with any real estate questions or concerns or visit our Palos Verdes Real Estate website.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

         

Palos Verdes Real Estate

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 Palos Verdes Real Estate

 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices got crushed the beginning of last week pushing rates significantly higher. Increased inflation fears tied to the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE2) and stronger than expected data led to an increase in mortgage interest rates. Retail sales and producer price data were higher than expected. Fortunately the bond market became so oversold that buyers emerged and mortgage bonds rebounded Thursday afternoon and Friday. Even with the bounce back we were still negative on the week by about 5/8 of a discount point.

Look for the possibility of volatility amid likely thin trading conditions and a shortened trading week. The bond market will close early Thursday afternoon and will be closed the entire day Friday in observance of the Christmas Holiday.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Q3 GDP third estimate

Wednesday, Dec. 22,
8:30 am, et

Up 2.6%

Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Existing Home Sales

Wednesday, Dec. 22,
10:00 am, et

4.65m

Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.

Personal Income and Outlays

Thursday, Dec. 23,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.2%,
Up 0.4%

Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

PCE Core Inflation

Thursday, Dec. 23,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.1%

Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.

Durable Goods Orders

Thursday, Dec. 23,
8:30 am, et

Down 0.8%

Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Dec. 23,
8:30 am, et

455k

Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Thursday, Dec. 23,
10:00 am, et

73.7

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

New Home Sales

Thursday, Dec. 23,
10:00 am, et

300k

Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Gas Prices

With gasoline prices hovering around the $3/gallon mark and oil prices in the upper $80/barrel range the fear of continued energy price increases is ever present. Oil prices remain high amid a slight rebound in the US economy and increased global demand. Many foreign nations blame the rising prices on a weaker US dollar. Higher energy costs are generally viewed as evidence of inflation. Inflation erodes the value of fixed income investments such as mortgage bonds causing prices to fall and rates to rise.

The markets seem convinced that the demand for oil will continue to grow as economies recover across the globe. However, these predictions are not a given. OPEC increased output in the third quarter but prices continued to rise. The world economies are still struggling and a spike in energy prices could lead to severe economic turmoil. However, predictions are tenuous at best, the future is uncertain, and market sentiment changes daily.

The important thing to remember is that rates remain historically favorable. Now is a great time buy palos verdes real estate to avoid the uncertainty surrounding continued market volatility and the possibility of higher mortgage interest rates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

                         www.pvbrokerswebcam.net

Is It Time To Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate ?

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        Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate

         “Where Integrity Meets Experience”

 

Is it time to buy Palos Verdes Real Estate ?

With rates at all-time lows and poised to rise, this is an ideal time to consider buying palos verdes real estate.  In recent years, buyer have continued to stay on the sidelines opting to attempt to catch the bottom of the real estate market.  This is a great strategy if these people can reach into their closet for a crystal ball or obtain Biff’s almanac from back to the future.  The fact remains that timing any market is a fools game. 

The reasons for this are two-fold.  Firstly, catching the bottom of a market, whether it is stocks, bond, real estate, etc., has been attempted and failed by many of the World’s greatest financial minds.  Timing the bottom is part luck, part skill, and part divine intervention.  Market valuations tend to overshoot wildly on both the upside and downside as primal instinct of fear and greed take over the process.  The fear instinct is actually far more powerful, thusly, thrusting markets downward at a faster rate than they rise.  This dynamic has certainly been demonstrated in the real estate markets of the past few years.
The second element making it difficult to time the bottom is the fact that there are many different factors at work that may be correlated or inversely correlated.  For example,usually, when interest rates rise, property values tend to fall.  As money becomes more expensively, property values come down to meet the decreased demand for housing.  People can no longer afford to finance at higher levels, therefore, forcing prices down.  However, in recent times, we have seen rates fall precipitously as home prices also fell dramatically forcing real estate foreclosures.  This, historically, doesn’t make much sense and violates some of the simple supply and demand theories.  The reason for this disconnect was that we entered into a period of disinflation which drove all prices and demand downward.  The experts were mixed on where the economy was headed and many were confused about how the markets were behaving.  This caused a flight to non-risky assets like bonds and precious metals.  In short, noone, including the experts, had a clue where we were headed next.  Now, one thing is certain, we will either have inflation, deflation, or little or no growth.  How’s that for a prediction !!

The Bottom Line

With today’s historically low rates and home prices in a 30-40 percent correction, it would be prudent to look to real estate as an attractive investment vehicle.  If you purchase now and interest rates rise due to inflation, your property value should increase and you have a locked in rate lower than the market.  If we get deflation, your property value may decrease but you will be able to refinance at lower rates.  All the while, you are receiving tax benefits from  writing off your mortgage interest.  In a low or no growth environment, you are being paid to wait.  Interest rates and property values should remain flat and you will still be receiving interest tax benefits.  Sounds like a pretty good risk-reward scenario to us.

So whether you want to [b]buy or sell palos verdes real estate[/b], please give us a call will any questions or comments.  You can also visit our website at http://www.pvbrokers.net to receive a comprehensive look at Palos Verdes Real Estate and search for properties and homes for sale.  Check out our new “mobile search” on our main menu from your iphone or android device. 

Copyright
Bart Cleveland
PV Brokers Residential Real Estate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

         

                        www.pvbrokerswebcam.com

Is It Time To Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate ?

Leave a comment

        Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate Buy Palos Verdes Real Estate

         “Where Integrity Meets Experience”

 

Is it time to buy Palos Verdes Real Estate ?

With rates at all-time lows and poised to rise, this is an ideal time to consider buying palos verdes real estate.  In recent years, buyer have continued to stay on the sidelines opting to attempt to catch the bottom of the real estate market.  This is a great strategy if these people can reach into their closet for a crystal ball or obtain Biff’s almanac from back to the future.  The fact remains that timing any market is a fools game. 

The reasons for this are two-fold.  Firstly, catching the bottom of a market, whether it is stocks, bond, real estate, etc., has been attempted and failed by many of the World’s greatest financial minds.  Timing the bottom is part luck, part skill, and part divine intervention.  Market valuations tend to overshoot wildly on both the upside and downside as primal instinct of fear and greed take over the process.  The fear instinct is actually far more powerful, thusly, thrusting markets downward at a faster rate than they rise.  This dynamic has certainly been demonstrated in the real estate markets of the past few years.
The second element making it difficult to time the bottom is the fact that there are many different factors at work that may be correlated or inversely correlated.  For example,usually, when interest rates rise, property values tend to fall.  As money becomes more expensively, property values come down to meet the decreased demand for housing.  People can no longer afford to finance at higher levels, therefore, forcing prices down.  However, in recent times, we have seen rates fall precipitously as home prices also fell dramatically forcing real estate foreclosures.  This, historically, doesn’t make much sense and violates some of the simple supply and demand theories.  The reason for this disconnect was that we entered into a period of disinflation which drove all prices and demand downward.  The experts were mixed on where the economy was headed and many were confused about how the markets were behaving.  This caused a flight to non-risky assets like bonds and precious metals.  In short, noone, including the experts, had a clue where we were headed next.  Now, one thing is certain, we will either have inflation, deflation, or little or no growth.  How’s that for a prediction !!

The Bottom Line

With today’s historically low rates and home prices in a 30-40 percent correction, it would be prudent to look to real estate as an attractive investment vehicle.  If you purchase now and interest rates rise due to inflation, your property value should increase and you have a locked in rate lower than the market.  If we get deflation, your property value may decrease but you will be able to refinance at lower rates.  All the while, you are receiving tax benefits from  writing off your mortgage interest.  In a low or no growth environment, you are being paid to wait.  Interest rates and property values should remain flat and you will still be receiving interest tax benefits.  Sounds like a pretty good risk-reward scenario to us.

So whether you want to [b]buy or sell palos verdes real estate[/b], please give us a call will any questions or comments.  You can also visit our website at http://www.pvbrokers.net to receive a comprehensive look at Palos Verdes Real Estate and search for properties and homes for sale.  Check out our new “mobile search” on our main menu from your iphone or android device. 

Copyright
Bart Cleveland
PV Brokers Residential Real Estate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

         

                        www.pvbrokerswebcam.com

Palos Verdes Real Estate Web Cam

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Enjoy another glorious Palos Verdes Peninsula Sunset at www.pvbrokerswebcam.net.  Also, Check out our new “mobile search” to view listings and palos verdes real estate listings search from your mobile phone.  Pretty cool stuff.  Enjoy !

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

Palos Verdes Real Estate Trends- Palos Verdes Peninsula and the SouthBay

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For a while, mortgage brokers, investors, lenders, banks and Wall Street firms were chugging along issuing home loans to nearly all comers. With so many people buying homes and refinancing, you couldn’t throw enough people at the problem. Generating new mortgages was a bustling industry that seemed to be all upside. We’re in the rewind phase now. Banks are foreclosing on a bunch of those mortgages, taking back properties and finding new owners for them. Now we learn that the big banks didn’t hire enough people to deal with all this new paperwork. (Lots of people wanted to come to the party; fewer are around now to clean up.) Lenders allegedly were seizing homes whose owners were in default and selling them to new people without dotting the I’s and crossing the T’s in every case. In some of the more startling cases, one department would be working on a loan modification while the foreclosure unit would seize and sell the house out from under the people living there. A failure to staff up is what led to the big news of the week. Bank of America, which bought the remnants of Countrywide – once the largest mortgage issuer in the nation – has called off foreclosures for a while. Other lenders are following suit. A moratorium on foreclosures can have many effects. Homeowners who are in trouble Advertisement get a break, for one. The banks have to put a lot more question marks in their financial reports for a while. No one is sure what the longer-term economic implications are. I wondered how we might see the impact of a slowdown or stoppage in foreclosures here in the South Bay. The place to start is to look at how common sales of foreclosed homes have been in the region recently. Running searches on the MLS, I chose to look only at sold properties where the listings were coded as “REO.” (That’s short for “Real Estate Owned,” a banking industry term for homes that a lender has taken back through foreclosure.) This won’t account for every property that was foreclosed on and whose title changed hands, but these data give us some useful data and information on trends. I quickly saw that the REOs were basically nonexistent in 2007, so the only years to look at are 2008-2010. (For the chart on this page, 2010 data are current as of Oct. 13.) All areas except the Palos Verdes Peninsula peaked last year and were not on pace to exceed those totals in 2010, even before talk of a stop to foreclosures. There aren’t many REOs in any of the five areas I looked at, just 1,325 cases over three years in a pretty wide area. If we remove Carson, which had 718 of those, the total is just 607. In most markets, the number of REO sales is a tiny fraction of all residential sales, though again Carson is an outlier. In that city, for instance, this year’s 192 REO sales can be measured against 310 residential sales that were regular – or non-REO – sales. That means REOs were 38 percent of all sales. By contrast, the three Beach Cities (Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach and Redondo Beach) saw 35 REOs this year out of more than 500 regular sales. There were also well over 500 regular sales in Torrance this year already, overwhelming the 50 that were REOs. These rates are far below what you see in some of the hard-hit markets of California, Arizona and Nevada, where foreclosures have been the majority of sales for a couple of years. The impact of foreclosures in local real estate markets is pretty well understood. Banks don’t want to hold properties for long, so they tend to price them low for a quick sale. The conventional wisdom, then, is that more REOs means lower prices. The opposite may not be true during a moratorium, though. Fewer foreclosures won’t mean higher values for everyone else if buyers think there’s a backlog of REO inventory building up behind the scenes somehow. Buyers will think lower prices are coming, just artificially delayed. In most South Bay markets, though, foreclosures have been more of an interesting case-by-case phenomenon than a major market factor. There’s plenty to worry about on a larger scale with the foreclosure mess, but the big headlines don’t seem to translate to much locally.

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