Palos Verdes Palm Tree Sunset

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                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

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Palos Verdes Sunset

October 29, 2010

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                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

                           www.pvbrokerscam.com

Live Sunset

October 29, 2010

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    Spectacular Live Sunset at http://www.pvbrokerscam.com !!

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

                           www.pvbrokerscam.com

Real Estate Home Sales Survey

October 27, 2010

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One Government Agency Says Up, While an Independent Agency Says Down

Who Do You Believe? Or Are Both Somehow Right?

Fred Yager
ConsumerAffairs.com

October 27, 2010

 Mortgage Crisis? Act Now to Avoid Foreclosure

Talk about confusion in the housing market. Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller monthly survey of 20 major housing markets came out today showing that home prices continued to fall in August, posting their first decline in five months. It was only a few minutes earlier that the Federal Housing Finance Agency had released its report on how home prices rose in August a mere 0.4%, indicating an improving but still weak housing market.

Now, who’s right? Case Shiller or the federal government? Would you believe both?

How can that be you ask? Well, read carefully because when it comes to data like this, sometimes the numbers get lost in the weeds, or in the weed-like equivalent of what’s known as “seasonal adjusted-basis.” That’s government speak for we got it wrong the first time and need to fix it.

As for the government’s data on home prices in August, they rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July’s revised figure, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s home price index.

Still confused? Not to worry. Here comes Standard & Poor and Case-Shiller to explain it all. According to them, home prices continued to lose steam in August, falling by 0.2% percent from the previous month. But then they say that more significantly, the annual rate of change, considered a more reliable indicator of ongoing trends, continued to shrink, with August home prices actually showing only a 1.7% increase from one year before.

Get it? No. How about this then? The annual rate of change has been cooling off over the past three months, ever since the 20-city index peaked in May at a 4.6 percent annual rate of growth. Increases or reductions in the S&P indices’ annual rate of growth often signal changes in momentum in the housing market.   

Still baffled? The S&P Index shows home prices declining in August in 15 of the 20 cities as compared to July. This decline ended a string of monthly increases, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, as effects from the expiration of a government tax credit continued to wear off.

Prices had been climbing since April, boosted by the expiration of the government’s first-time home-buyer tax credit that lured waves of people to purchase homes before it expired. Growth had slowed in recent months as its effects waned. Before prices had started rising, they had fallen sequentially for six straight months.

Recent data suggest a standoff between home buyers and sellers may be easing slightly, as the annual rate of sales of previously owned homes climbed 10% in September from a month earlier, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors.

 Then come the government figures to muck everything up. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) home price index showed home prices in August rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July’s revised figure. Here’s where it really gets tricky. See, index had fallen the previous two months following the expiration of a tax credit for first-time home buyers at the end of April. The government’s data showed prices month-on-month rose in five of nine regions, with the strongest performance in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana.

Here’s where the difference in these two reports becomes more understanding. The FHFA’s index is calculated by using the prices of houses purchased with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The S&P Case-Shiller home-price index of 20-cities looked at all home values in those 20 cities not just those bought with help from Freddie and Fannie.

Now, if only they had told us this in the beginning we wouldn’t have been so confused.

Read more: http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2010/10/one-government-agency-says-up-while-an-independent-agency-says-down.html#ixzz13aZY8MnD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

                           www.pvbrokerscam.com

PV Brokers Palos Verdes Real Estate

October 23, 2010

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Chosen Best Palos Verdes Real Estate Agent Realtors

 

Market Comment

There are many cross currents in the Palos Verdes Real Estate Market.  It is important that your real estate AGENT keep up with the volatile mortgage market.

Mortgage bond prices ended the week higher pushing mortgage interest rates lower. We had a week of very mixed data. Industrial production data was weaker than expected which was generally bond friendly to start the week. Stronger than expected housing starts data Tuesday was not what the bond market was looking for but the reaction was muted. Significant stock weakness Wednesday helped mortgage bonds finish the day in positive territory. This was followed by lower than expected weekly jobless claims Thursday. Fortunately mortgage bonds were positive overall for the week. Rates finished the week generally about 1/4 of a discount point lower.

The Treasury auctions will be carefully watched this week. If foreign demand remains solid rates should hold steady.

Forecast

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Existing Home Sales

Monday, Oct. 25,
10:00 am, et

4.23m

Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.

Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, Oct. 26,
10:00 am, et

50

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

2-year Treasury Note Auction

Tuesday, Oct. 26,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. $35 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Durable Goods Orders

Wednesday, Oct. 27,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.8%

Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

New Home Sales

Wednesday, Oct. 27,
10:00 am, et

300k

Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

5-year Treasury Note Auction

Wednesday, Oct. 27,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. $35 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q3 Advanced GDP

Thursday, Oct. 28,
8:30 am, et

Up 2.4%

Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

7-year Treasury Note Auction

Thursday, Oct. 28,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. $29 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q3 Employment Cost Index

Friday, Oct. 29,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.5%

Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Friday, Oct. 29,
10:00 am, et

68.5

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Employment Cost Index

The employment cost index is a quarterly report issued by the Department of Labor. The report measures the growth of wages, salaries, and benefits costs over a certain period of time. Though ECI figures are usually weeks old, the data remains the best indicator of employment price pressures considering it factors employees’ total compensation.

If wage pressures become evident, higher expectations of inflation also tend to arise. However, increasing compensation does not necessarily lead to increased inflationary pressures. Oftentimes, increased productivity enables employers to increase compensation without increasing the costs of their goods or services. Be cautious heading into this release.


Copyright 2010. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc.

PV Brokers Residential Real Estate Mortgage Update

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Picked Best Palos Verdes  Realtors  Agents Palos Verdes Residential Brokers      

 

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Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices ended the week higher pushing mortgage interest rates lower. We had a week of very mixed data. Industrial production data was weaker than expected which was generally bond friendly to start the week. Stronger than expected housing starts data Tuesday was not what the bond market was looking for but the reaction was muted. Significant stock weakness Wednesday helped mortgage bonds finish the day in positive territory. This was followed by lower than expected weekly jobless claims Thursday. Fortunately mortgage bonds were positive overall for the week. Rates finished the week generally about 1/4 of a discount point lower.

The Treasury auctions will be carefully watched this week. If foreign demand remains solid rates should hold steady.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Existing Home Sales

Monday, Oct. 25,
10:00 am, et

4.23m

Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.

Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, Oct. 26,
10:00 am, et

50

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

2-year Treasury Note Auction

Tuesday, Oct. 26,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. $35 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Durable Goods Orders

Wednesday, Oct. 27,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.8%

Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

New Home Sales

Wednesday, Oct. 27,
10:00 am, et

300k

Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

5-year Treasury Note Auction

Wednesday, Oct. 27,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. $35 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q3 Advanced GDP

Thursday, Oct. 28,
8:30 am, et

Up 2.4%

Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

7-year Treasury Note Auction

Thursday, Oct. 28,
1:15 pm, et

None

Important. $29 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Q3 Employment Cost Index

Friday, Oct. 29,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.5%

Very important. A measure of wage inflation. Weakness may lead to lower rates.

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Friday, Oct. 29,
10:00 am, et

68.5

Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Employment Cost Index

The employment cost index is a quarterly report issued by the Department of Labor. The report measures the growth of wages, salaries, and benefits costs over a certain period of time. Though ECI figures are usually weeks old, the data remains the best indicator of employment price pressures considering it factors employees’ total compensation.

If wage pressures become evident, higher expectations of inflation also tend to arise. However, increasing compensation does not necessarily lead to increased inflationary pressures. Oftentimes, increased productivity enables employers to increase compensation without increasing the costs of their goods or services. Be cautious heading into this release.


Copyright 2010. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc.

www.ratelink.com The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

                           www.pvbrokerscam.com

PV Brokers Palos Verdes Residential Real Estate Local Forecast

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PV Brokers Real Estate: Your local forecast

By 2012, the national median home price is expected to rise by about 4%. Check the predictions for your city.
1. Select your state:

Choose state Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Dist. of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

2. Select your city/market:

Choose city/marketBakersfield-Delano, CAChico, CAEl Centro, CAFresno, CAHanford-Corcoran, CALos Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CAMadera-Chowchilla, CAMerced, CAModesto, CANapa, CAOakland-Fremont-Hayward, CAOxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CARedding, CARiverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CASacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CASalinas, CASan Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CASan Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CASan Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CASan Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CASanta Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CASanta Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CASanta Cruz-Watsonville, CASanta Rosa-Petaluma, CAStockton, CAVallejo-Fairfield, CAVisalia-Porterville, CAYuba City, CA

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA
SEE ANOTHER MARKET
Forecast change: first quarter, 2010 – first quarter, 2011
-8.1%
Forecast change: first quarter, 2011 – first quarter, 2012
+7.5%

Market fundamentals
Median Family Income
(2008)
$59,800
Median Home Price
(Third quarter 2009)
$335,000
Change in Home Prices
(From third quarter 2008 thru third quarter 2009)
-6.6%
Worst 1-Year Home Price Change
(1980-2009)
-26.9%
(Third quarter 2008)
Source: FiServ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                 Bart Cleveland
                                       Broker
                      Registered Investment Advisor
                                310.872.0778  cell 
                                310.684.3156  office       

 

              

                Where Integrity Meets Experience tm

                              www.pvbrokers.net

                        www.palosverdesrealtors.net

                           www.pvbrokerscam.com

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